Introduction
During survival training the commandoes are taught techniques to
avoid starving when cut off from human habitats while operating in dense
forests, unending deserts and snow-clad mountains due to enemy action. The basic
principle is that human beings can consume everything that is eaten by mammals.
Wild or unknown red-coloured fruits and plants that exude white juice should be
considered poisonous and avoided. The commandoes are trained to catch and eat
even snakes. The trick is to catch the snakes alive and remove their poisonous,
rotten and harmful glands before killing them and preparing a delicious meal.
Similarly, the data needs to be defanged before consuming, lest it dooms the
user. It needs to be sifted, vetted, analysed and evaluated.
Information is
power. Google’s mission statement is to “Organise the world’s information and
make it universally accessible and useful”. The ever evolving technology makes
it possible to compile and process infinite information, in near real time.
These compilations can be accessed across the globe with the internet. Smart
phones have empowered individuals to summon all the information on the internet
instantaneously. Computers, internet, satellite based communications and smart
phones together have provided wings to the information by generating high speed,
volume and efficiency of data transmission that can create turmoil in seconds.
Smart phones and the internet have made available a personal library, bigger
than any physical library to each individual and have networked all individuals
into one whole. Artificial intelligence (AI) is now providing an independent
brain to this networked information that can be summoned instantaneously. The
data is so intensely entwined with the communication technology, computers,
internet, media, and AI that it is futile to discuss one without others.
Nature
of Data
The data can be incomplete, inaccurate, obsolete, biased, insufficient,
motivated or irrelevant and its compilation can be through archaic techniques.
There may be gaps in the information that need to be plugged. Historical data on
which the present information has been built, may lead to biases. Today there is
more data that is easily and quickly accessible through sensors, space crafts
and other devices. It can be disseminated directly over a variety of media. Big
or more data does not necessarily mean objective or accurate information.
Quality is always more desirable than quantity.
Data has a unique attribute. It
usually creates an illusion of certainty and conviction. The numbers seem to be
more accurate compared to other factors that are somewhat vague and generic,
thus inducing confidence and over dependence on numbers. Over confidence and
human judgement can lead to erroneous conclusions. Data evolves over a number of
iterations. However, usually there is a rush to react to information even before
it is analysed or interpreted, as there is continuous pressure to outsmart
rivals and competitors. Our inability to exploit the data optimally can create
mirages.
The source, motive and purpose of data compilation are very important.
BREXIT is a classic case of data generation through ineffectual source. The
United Kingdom held a referendum on 23 Jun 2016 and voted to leave the European
Union (EU). The next day, it was confirmed that 51.9% of the British population
had voted in favour of leaving the Union. This decision taken through a simple
majority, wherein 48.1% had voted to maintain status quo, shook the
international financial world.
It is unfortunate that the decision for BREXIT
was taken on the basis of simple majority vote by common men and women, who
barring a small percentage, were neither fully aware nor competent to understand
the implications of such a pull out. A citizen is more engaged in practicing and
mastering his profession, earning livelihood and raising a family. His judgement
is largely influenced by opinion makers. He has minimal understanding of the
impact of international coalitions on national socio-economics, politics and
security.
The EU comprising less than one tenth of the world population
generates nearly one fifth of global GDP. Barring a couple of exceptions, the
member countries have a very high Human Development Index. However, the United
Kingdom government divorced, as apparently in the British opinion, the Union had
failed to deliver prosperity to them, a premise for its creation, a fallacy that
a common citizen is incompetent to appreciate.
The separation has manifested
more to the detriment of Great Britain than the EU or the world order. It shall
continue to have long term political, economical and social ramifications. It
should therefore have been the prerogative of the bodies of experts to make
recommendations on such an intense, technical and vexed issue after in-depth and
detailed deliberations. Thereafter, the government should have ensured that
decision to sever the cord was taken near unanimously as a simple majority in
the instant case meant though less, but nearly equal numbers had opposed the
proposal. Let us not forget that the United Kingdom had played a pivotal role in
the raising and shaping of the Union, without any referendum.
Information
Technology and the Future
Machine learning, quantum computing and AI will shape
the future impact of data. Cyber attacks, hacking important communication
systems and social media platforms are exploited both by the nations and non
state actors. Social media acts as both a source of legitimate information and a
conduit for misinformation and fake news. In a latest development, META (earlier
‘FaceBook’) a major social media company has shifted the fact check burden from
professional fact checkers to users in a move to democratising information and
eliminating allegations of biased content management. META’s withdrawal from
professional fact checking is a watershed moment in the history of internet with
far reaching repercussions. This action framed as an effort to defend free
expression runs the risk of creating an unchecked atmosphere for increase in
health related misinformation, politically tinged falsehood and security threats
to thrive. It has opened the floodgates for lies, hate, disinformation,
propaganda and conspiracies by firing all the expert fact checkers and declaring
that the old ‘containment’ system did not work. The challenge especially due to
lack of internet accessibility in geographical variations, rural and poor
population who rely on unverified sources and linguistic and literacy diversity
will be to sift the truth from lies. Developing AI powered solutions to detect
misinformation and permanently placing teams of experts in the regulatory bodies
are some of the possible solutions for damage control. Thus far there is
universal conundrum to social media laws and regulations that needs to be now
addressed with all seriousness.
Geoffrey Hinton, winner of Nobel Prize in
Physics 2024, also known as the god father of AI, has renounced all his work and
job apprehending the terrible danger of AI that may soon engulf mankind. AI
systems are intelligent, can understand and make decisions based on their
experiences. In time to come, these systems will also have self awareness. First
time on the planet, humans will be second most intelligent, as then AI will be
more intelligent than us. These are algorithms based systems. When these
algorithms interact with data, it produces complicated neural networks good at
doing things. We are however; unable to decipher the process of their operations
like we are unaware of the functioning of someone’s brain. One of the ways these
systems can escape our control is when they start writing their own computer
codes to modify themselves. That is something we need to earnestly worry about.
Data Warfare
Information has also been labelled as a weapon. Data Warfare, aptly
named Information Warfare (IW) has been prevalent since ancient times. It
involves generating rumours, spreading misinformation and false reports to break
enemy’s morale and create confusion. It also involves gaining enemy information
while denying the same to the adversary forces. It involves control and
perception management. It is a conflict in which information and information
systems act as both weapons and targets.
Emerging technologies usually get
embroiled to develop lethal arsenal during wars for gaining battlefield
ascendency over the adversary before she is able to outsmart you. Information
and communication technologies enabled capacity was also enmeshed to achieve
strategic impact and tactical advantage over opponents during the world wars. It
facilitated conduct of war on the global footing for the first time.
Subsequently, there was a prolonged period of cold war. Cold war is a constant
war. During this period information warfare that has now graduated to cyber
warfare continues. This warfare is geographically boundless. It is a relentless
campaign that commences years prior to the actual conflict, lasts through the
war and persists beyond. It encompasses national, diplomatic, economic and
military power. Psychological manipulation and cyber operations impact the
outcome of operations and public perception.
Data and Decision Making
Decision
making is both an art and science of critical importance, involving a variety of
operational, technical, financial, environmental and social, besides a host of
other tangible and more intangible issues. Judgmental errors of even well
thought out decisions, may have catastrophic consequences. Data is only a tool
that helps to analyse a problem and facilitates decision making. It is not a
solution to the problem. This will be aptly elucidated with a causality
evacuation operation that went wrong with disastrous consequences.
A group of men was operating on a mountain range at very high altitude. The sun was right up and bright but the
temperature down below was about minus twenty five degrees Celsius. In the
coming days all the routes to these mountain ridges would be buried under more than
twenty feet of snow and the mountain passes will be closed till the next summer.
The only hope for reaching out to those deployed on these mountains will be
helicopters that will operate only during fair weather conditions and daylight.
As the sun
was setting, those housed at the highest ridge reported that a man was having severe
chest pain and needed immediate medical care and evacuation. The boss of the organisation whose employees were operating on these peaks, was
now in a dilemma as that was the last day for making any movement. Standing
operating procedures drawn on the data of over a hundred of years of experience in this inhospitable terrain prohibited any movement from the midnight that day
for the next six months as the snowfall could start any day. The first snowfall
is usually very heavy and ruthless causing maximum devastation. If the ailing man was left to his fate, it could be fatal. After some brainstorming, he
decided to attempt foot evacuation as helicopters did not operate in the dark.
Two parties, one each from either end were launched. These parties would
marry up at the midpoint and exchange further evacuation of the critically
ailing casuality and return to their bases. The parties married up at the
midpoint. Just then the weather suddenly turned hostile and a strong snow
blizzard swept the area. Soon contact with the evacuation teams was lost. By the
next morning, all the mountains were covered with thick piles of fresh snow.
When none of the teams returned to their bases till late, helicopters were
launched to look for the rescue teams. Helicopters could not spot anyone except
the casualty who was lying on a rock top, nicely packed in a sleeping bag, tied
to a stretcher. Apparently the rescuers had all gotten buried alive
under the snow. Their bodies were recovered next summer when the snow melted.
The Boss became insane reflecting on the horrific outcome of his decision
to evacuate. It, however left an indelible mark of camaraderie on the team members as they
never desert their wounded. There are folklores exemplifying this incidence that
are still recounted at functions. Despite years of data based caution, they
suffered that night because in a given situation there can be innumerable other
intangibles that get predominantly compelling for the decision maker, than
merely data based decisions.
Ethical Issues and Data Regulations
These days
every organisation big or small; whether political, social, military, commercial
or medical has their independent cyber cells. It is naive to expect ethical
behaviour from these teams whose genesis is unethical. Besides their many other
tasks, cyber teams are continuously engaged in media campaigns and perception
management which in simple words means telling and spreading well thought out
series of plausible lies with the intent to influence their target audience. The
principal economic hustle and bustle; the share markets, the world over are
manoeuvred with data manipulation. The data here works for its creators and
injures the innocent, incompetent, unaware and unsuspecting end users who
unwittingly make decisions reposing faith in the misleading information.
Political parties engage cyber teams for their propaganda and governments manage
perception of citizens by feeding biased data. Most of the media houses are
owned by business tycoons and political parties that keep blaring misleading
information.
Smart phones can snoop on the conversation in their proximity.
Conversation between a couple in the privacy of their bedroom or the locations
they visit with their smart phones in their pockets or bags get picked up on
internet through their phones. Accordingly, conversation specific or location
relevant messages and advertisements start popping on their phones. It is
therefore a sham to talk about the ethical dilemma of data collection and its
usage. In the digital era, individual privacy is a myth. Sensitive personal data
is in the open public domain. Harvesting data from unauthorised sources to
target individuals with structured narratives to influence their opinions,
polarisation and sensitisation, as also for improved understanding of the public
needs for better governance is customary practice. During technology driven
wars, ethics always plays catch up as the conventions for the usage of any new
technology get drawn in a later time frame after it has already been
commissioned.
During Covid 19 social media networks played a vital role in
informing millions about the safety precautions and vaccine. On the other hand,
social media is a breeding ground for health misinformation. World Health
Organisation has dubbed social media as the pandemic’s ‘Infodemic’, highlighting
the harmful effects of incorrect information spread on social media at lightning
speed. Effects of miracle cures, vaccine side effects and pseudoscientific
treatments campaigns are catastrophic, including delayed treatment, increased
vaccination reluctance and resultant fatalities.
Both national and international
regulations to prevent misuse of data have become obsolete as the generation and
dissemination of data has grown exponentially during the past couple of decades.
There has been almost negligible review of the existing regulations, that too,
mostly as fallout of the legal suits. Scheduled revision of these regulations to
counter the challenges posed by the emerging cyber misinformation campaigns is
yet beyond the horizon. There is a definite need to institute measures to
counter social media campaigns and cyber troops engaged in subverting the minds
of people both from within and outside the country. The challenge however is the
competing needs of free speech and censorship. Clear regulations for data
collection and its usage and international agreements, treaties and conventions
for cyber warfare are essential.
Human Mind and Data Education
Human mind is
more adapted to remembering stories than sheets of data. Many people may
remember the wisdom from one of the epics that a young goat should never be
cooked in its mother’s milk. A section of the people interpreted that the young
goat can be cooked in the milk of another goat or cow; while the others
interpreted that it is unhealthy to consume milk immediately after eating goat
meat. Thus the individuals interpret the same information differently as per
their perception. We overestimate the predictive power of data as if it is
flawless. This can be disastrous. Our minds have confirmation and cognitive
biases. Majority of masses have a lack of understanding of statistics, domain
knowledge and ability to discern patterns and anomalies.
Data literacy and
education of all professionals who have to rely on data to understand
statistical concepts, recognising cognitive biases, ability to critically
evaluate data and methodology of data generation is essential. Decision makers
should know the limitations of data and the consequences of relying on it.
Better data practices involve capability to improve data quality by ensuring
accuracy, completeness and true representativeness. It involves exhaustive data
collection protocols, storage, analysis and audit for errors and biases.
Proficiency in the art of communication avoids both; misunderstanding and
misrepresentation of data. Raw data is information. Converting information into
intelligence is a technical process. The reliability of the source of data and
the likelihood of its correctness needs to be evaluated before analysing and
drawing any deductions from data.
Conclusion
During the past century,
Homo-sapiens have graduated to an era of assured mutual destruction where super
powers have the nuclear arsenal to counter attack causing a complete nuclear
holocaust even after they have been struck lethally. Similarly, data is a
powerful double edged sword. Data does not stab us, its misuse and
misunderstanding definitely sinks us. Data helps innovation, research,
understanding social needs, market trends, individual behaviour, forecasts,
medical treatment etc. Data based research helped reduce child mortality rate
and increase human life expectancy. The problem is not the data itself but how
we use it. Misrepresentation and ethical dilemmas are our pitfalls and not the
data. It is a powerful tool that can be both used and misused.
There is no
objective truth at all. Everyone has their own truth which they wield to
vanquish their rival. All social interactions are power struggles. Power is the
only reality. Politician’s truth is power; profit is the truth for a
businessman. AI generated frauds are already a routine. The societies need to be
protected from the evils of AI and yet we have to exploit its goodness. Nations,
organisations and individuals who avoid AI will get left behind. We have to
remain optimistic about it. This happens with all the new technologies.
Blotching technology driven data is similar to blaming the stick in the hands of
a monkey for all the destruction caused by the monkey.
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